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Aprosoja Mato Grosso's regional tour found soybean planting in Primavera do Leste finished on October 13, earlier than in prior years, after a rainy September. Producers now report hotter temperatures, spaced-out rains in October and high production costs.
Early planting supports a timely Brazilian soybean crop, but heat and irregular rain raise yield risk, a small factor for soybean and meal prices.
After 328 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.