
Conab's second survey put Brazil's 2026/27 grain crop at 366.1 million tonnes, 0.9 million below its October first estimate. Soybean area is seen at 49.3 million hectares with output of 181.6 million tonnes, and planting had reached 66.8% of the area by early November, ahead of last year and the five-year average.
A slightly smaller Brazilian crop and fast planting leave soybean and meal supply broadly comfortable, so the price effect is modest, with weather risk in the north-east keeping some upside in soybean meal.
After 568 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.