
In its November WASDE for 2026-27, the USDA raised its projected world wheat ending stocks to 280.8 million tonnes, 4.8 million more than in October. It raised Argentine and Australian wheat crop forecasts by 1.5 million tonnes each, to 23 and 32.5 million tonnes, and lifted world production to 827.51 million tonnes, while cutting the volume expected to trade internationally.
Larger Southern Hemisphere wheat supplies and a smaller traded volume point to ample export supply and softer wheat prices, which lowers feed grain alternatives' cost for buyers.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.