
The USDA is starting a Market Facilitation Program that will make payments to corn, cotton, dairy, hog, sorghum, soybean and wheat producers affected by a trade war with China. Payment amounts will be based on how much of their profits were hit, and the program begins September 4.
Direct payments can keep acreage and output in production despite weak export demand, which limits price support from the trade dispute. The effect on futures is likely modest and depends on how much support reaches farmers.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.