
Day one of U.S.-China trade talks ended with hopes for a limited deal. Private exporters reported a snap sale of 398,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, part of a flurry of purchases since Beijing granted tariff waivers to some importers as a goodwill gesture.
Concrete Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans reduce available export supply and support prices, while the limited scope of the talks caps expectations for a larger agricultural deal.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.