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Analyst Larry Shonkwiler says the China Phase I trade deal has few specifics so far, with soybeans the main focus but corn, DDGS, sorghum, wheat and other products also under consideration. China imports about 80-85% of its soybean needs, roughly 85 million tonnes, while sorghum imports have fallen sharply to about 900,000 tonnes.
Ample stocks may limit benefits for feed grains.
Ample Chinese grain stocks limit how much feed grain purchases can lift prices, so soybeans remain the main trade-driven price factor.
farmprogress.comLarry ShonkwilerJan 6, 2020After 696 past bullish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
