
South Korea, Japan and Vietnam are increasing purchases of US corn as China cuts back its imports. Brazil is also gaining Chinese business as Beijing diversifies its grain supply.
US corn exports to China peaked in September 2021 and have trended lower since mid-2022.
Redirected US corn demand toward other Asian buyers partly offsets lost Chinese orders, leaving the net price effect for corn mixed. Brazilian gains reduce competition for US soy and corn in China.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.