A CoBank report says China will remain an active buyer of US grain through 2021-22 but is shifting to opportunistic buying, waiting for price weakness before committing. China has also contracted forward for the next marketing year amid volatile prices.
China buying on dips sets a price floor on US feed grains and soybeans, but also makes demand lumpier and prices more volatile for feed buyers.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.