A Chinese State Council think-tank researcher said China intends to increase grain imports from Belt and Road countries to diversify away from U.S. supply during the trade war. He said these countries are likely to win orders for land-intensive agricultural products.
Diversion of Chinese grain demand to other origins reduces long-term U.S. export share and tends to cap U.S. grain and soybean prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.