
Analysis of USDA data shows the Market Facilitation Program paid about $10.5 billion from fall 2018 to November 1, 2019, with Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota each receiving over $1 billion. Payments were concentrated among a small number of large operations.
Trade aid keeps US farmers planting and holding crops despite weak export prices, which sustains supply and keeps pressure on cash grain prices.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.