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Chinese buyers largely avoided the US autumn soybean harvest after tit-for-tat tariffs imposed import duties of 23% on US soybeans, turning instead to South American supplies. China says it will boost US farm trade, but details of the commitments remain unclear.
Uncertainty over whether China will follow through on purchase pledges keeps US export demand unreliable, limiting upside for soybeans and meal relative to Brazilian supply.
reuters.comElla Cao, Naveen ThukralOct 30, 2025After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
