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Soybean export premiums fell in Brazil while US soybean futures hit a three-month high after the US-China trade pause. US farmers said the 90-day tariff pause is not enough because Brazilian suppliers do not face the Chinese tariff.
Brazil retaining its edge in China limits US export demand and caps the bullish effect of the tariff truce on soybean prices.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.