
USDA announced $3.6 billion in trade-war payments to farmers, bringing total tariff payments on 2019 production to $14.5 billion. Secretary Perdue tied the aid to the Phase One China deal and the USMCA signing, and only one large Chinese soybean purchase has been reported so far.
Government payments support farm income and may keep planted acreage and production steady, but they do not directly change feed supply, and China's purchase pace is the key price driver for soybeans and corn.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.