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Reuters reports that the US-China trade conflict opens new opportunities for Black Sea exporters Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to sell wheat, corn and soybeans to China and the EU. Russia and Ukraine have already gained share in markets such as Nigeria and Mexico.
The EU imposed a 25 percent import duty on US corn in June, which could favor Ukrainian corn.
Redirected demand from China and the EU toward Black Sea origins supports Black Sea export prices and can pull business away from US corn and soybeans, weighing on US futures and feed cost competitiveness.
reuters.comPolina DevittJul 10, 2018After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
