Ukrainian seaborne grain flows under the Black Sea Grain Initiative averaged about 155,400 mt per day in early February 2023, the highest monthly average since the deal began. Weekly exports for Feb.
6-12 rose 17% to about 1.14 million mt despite bad weather. Inspection delays remain a priority for the parties.
Steady Black Sea export flows add to global corn and wheat supply, which tends to cap prices. Persistent inspection bottlenecks could still disrupt shipments.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.