
Ukraine increased grain shipments to Black Sea ports by 5.5% year-on-year in February to 2.3 million tonnes despite Russian attacks on transport infrastructure. Ukrainian grain exports rose 1% month-on-month to 3.4 million tonnes, with corn dominating.
Cumulative 2025/26 grain exports stood at 22.3 million tonnes, below 29.6 million a year earlier.
Steady Ukrainian flows support adequate corn and wheat supply, but cumulative exports well below last season are mildly supportive for global corn and wheat prices.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.