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Rabobank strategist Stefan Vogel says tighter global wheat stocks outside China and dry US winter wheat areas are lifting world prices, with CBOT up about 20% since mid-January. He argues Black Sea origin competition will ultimately determine Australian wheat price prospects in Southeast Asia.
Tighter stocks and US drought support wheat prices in the near term, while low-cost Black Sea supply caps the upside in export markets.
graincentral.comGrain CentralMar 15, 2018After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
