Brent futures were broadly flat on November 13, trading up 0.7% at $95.89 a barrel mid-morning in Europe. Investors weighed the risk of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz against uncertain US talks with Iran.
Trump said an agreement with Tehran was unnecessary, dampening hopes for an imminent deal.
Persistent Hormuz risk keeps crude and energy costs elevated, which feeds into diesel, fertilizer and freight costs for feed production. Without a deal, prices stay supported near current levels.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.