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Reduced near-term output from Libya and Iraq could allow OPEC+ to ease its voluntary cuts in October without weakening the market. Instability has returned to Libya, and Iraq's compliance pledges appear more concrete.
Supply outages in Libya and Iraq could offset the planned OPEC+ increase, limiting downward pressure on crude. This affects diesel and energy costs for feed producers.
mees.comJamie Ingram, Yesar Al-MalekiAug 30, 2024After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
