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A Hamm Institute report says the Middle East war disrupted Strait of Hormuz flows of urea and seaborne sulphur, and China tightened fertilizer export controls. The authors describe a security crisis across nitrogen supply and sulphur availability for phosphate production.
Loss of Hormuz urea and sulphur flows keeps nitrogen and phosphate prices supported, raising production costs for feed grains and oilseeds.
farmcountryal.comOct 21, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
