Vietnam's Plant Production and Protection Department held a conference with fertilizer producers to discuss stabilizing fertilizer prices and securing crop supply. Companies reported that the Middle East conflict since late February 2026 has raised transport, raw material and production costs.
Vietnam's urea capacity is about 2.8 million tons per year against domestic demand of about 2.1 million tons, leaving a surplus that firms want to export.
Higher Middle East-driven input costs and tight global nitrogen supply lift urea and fertilizer prices, which feed into farm production costs and feed grain economics. Vietnam's surplus and export balancing is a modest offset that may limit regional urea price gains.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.