
Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Thursday as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical tensions offset rising crude output. Brent traded near $93.96 and WTI near $87.06, though both were still set for a weekly decline.
Iran said four tankers were hit in the strait, and Ukraine reported attacks on a Russian Baltic port.
Continued disruption to Gulf crude shipments keeps energy and freight costs elevated, which raises diesel and fertilizer costs for feed producers and supports vegetable oil and biofuel-linked prices.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.