The dollar rose 10.84% in Brazil, but producers held back soybeans

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 18, 2017Brazil's Scandal Hits Soybean Prices+5.6%
• Nov 19, 2025Dollar rises in the Brazilian market following international movement | Brasil 247+1.3%
• Sep 23, 2024Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US | Brasil 247-1.1%
• Jan 22, 2021Latam FX falls as dollar rises, Brazil real lags peers for the week - Markets - Business Recorder+0.4%
• Jul 19, 2018Brazilian Real and Argentine Peso lose ground against the dollar — MercoPress-3.5%

After 123 past bullish macro events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.8%), and -0.4% over 20.

• May 16, 2018‘Start selling so dollars come in,’ Argentine soybean farmers are told+1.2%
• Dec 3, 2020Grains and the Dollar: An Imperfect but Negative Relationship+0.5%
• Jan 24, 2018Dollar tanks the most in 10 months after Mnuchin says weak dollar is good+1.4%
• Oct 30, 2025Dollar rises against the real, still influenced by Fed decision | Brasil 247+3.7%
• Sep 29, 2017Can the US dollar make a comeback? | South China Morning Post+0.9%

After 73 past neutral macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.1%), and -1.6% over 20.

• Jul 1, 2019China, Brazil and the Soybean Crush-2.8%
• Oct 27, 2026First Thing Today | Soybeans see small bounce as Brazilian real stabilizes - Pro Farmer-2.3%
• Aug 30, 2024Spot dollar closes higher for the 5th session despite interventions by the Central Bank | Brasil 247+3.0%
• Apr 18, 2025First week without the cepo: dollar rises and falls, impact on prices remains unclear - Buenos Aires Herald-1.6%
• Jul 31, 2025U.S. dollar exchange rate in Argentina hits all-time high of AR$1,380 - Buenos Aires Herald+2.6%