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SBI Research estimates El Niño could cut India's agricultural output by about 3.86 crore tonnes, worth roughly ₹1 lakh crore, across Kharif and Rabi seasons. The impact has shifted to the Rabi season, and about 1.35 crore hectares could be affected.
Lower Indian crop output, especially in the Rabi season, could reduce domestic feed grain supply and raise import demand. The scale of the loss makes it a meaningful driver for regional grain prices.
upstox.comNov 12, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
