◂ Event Timeline

Mar 12, 2020WEATHERUS

U.S. forecaster sees 65 per cent chance of no spring El Nino, La Nina

Reuters reports that the US Climate Prediction Center sees a 65% chance of neutral ENSO conditions this spring, up from 60% last month, and a 55% chance of neutral through summer 2020. El Niño emerged in 2018 and has been linked to crop damage.

WHY IT MATTERS

A neutral outlook lowers the risk of weather-driven crop losses in major exporting regions, so it offers limited support to grain and oilseed prices.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)Palm Oil

SOURCE
farmtario.comReutersMar 12, 2020

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d -1.5%5d -7.4%20d -3.7%

After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.

May 14, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer-0.0%
Aug 8, 2024Sixty-six per cent chance of La Niña weather emerging, U.S. forecaster says - AgCanada-0.2%
Dec 12, 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-0.0%
Feb 13, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 60% chance of neutral weather conditions during spring+1.0%
Oct 10, 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-2.6%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d -1.5%5d -4.9%20d -1.5%

After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

May 14, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer+1.3%
Aug 8, 2024Sixty-six per cent chance of La Niña weather emerging, U.S. forecaster says - AgCanada-4.0%
Dec 12, 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-4.4%
Feb 13, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 60% chance of neutral weather conditions during spring+0.0%
Oct 10, 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-3.9%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d -0.3%5d -4.3%20d -5.8%

After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.

Dec 12, 2024US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January-0.5%
Feb 13, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 60% chance of neutral weather conditions during spring+5.3%
Oct 10, 2024US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November-0.5%
Nov 14, 2024US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December | Reuters-0.5%
Mar 14, 2024US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+0.4%

Palm Oilno directional readSO FAR1d -2.4%5d -4.4%20d -4.8%

After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

Feb 13, 2020U.S. forecaster sees 60% chance of neutral weather conditions during spring-2.8%
Mar 14, 2024US forecaster sees higher chance of La Nina conditions this summer | Reuters+1.2%
Dec 6, 2023How long will the El Nino last? Latest official forecasts - Grain Price News-1.3%
May 10, 2018El Niño pattern could emerge by 2018-19 winter: U.S. forecaster+0.7%
Jun 19, 2025Five tips for making the most of El Niño and La Niña forecasts | CRUCIAL-0.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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