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Analysts expect El Nino to bring above-average rain to southern Brazil and Argentina while drying the north. Brazil could reach a record soybean crop near 160 million tons in 2023/24, and Argentina's output could nearly double.
A record Brazil crop and an Argentine rebound would raise global soybean and meal export supply, which is bearish for soy complex prices.
agriculture.comReutersAug 25, 2023After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
