
ABARES says the 2017-18 winter crop harvest held up better than feared in Western Australia, Victoria and South Australia, while Queensland and NSW output came in below downgraded forecasts. Summer planting area is up slightly at 1.3 million hectares, but soil moisture is well below average and worsening.
Irrigation water storage is about a third lower than a year earlier.
Dry soils and weak summer prospects raise the risk of further supply shortfalls in sorghum and other feed grains, which would support local feed prices. The outlook depends on rainfall over the rest of the season.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.