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Reuters reported that El Niño, widely expected to develop in the second half of 2023, poses a bigger production risk to robusta coffee than to arabica. Vietnam and Brazil, the two largest robusta producers, could suffer yield losses under a strong event.
Analysts said this could tighten supplies and raise robusta prices.
Yield losses in Vietnam and Brazil would tighten robusta supply and support prices, though coffee is outside the feed-commodity complex this service tracks.
reuters.comMarcelo TeixeiraMay 25, 2023After 2,467 past weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
