
The November 2026 WASDE projects US soybean oil imports of about 318,000 tonnes and exports of 181,000 tonnes in 2026/27, making the country a net importer. US soybean oil production is forecast at 14.9 million tonnes, but biofuel use is projected to rise to 8.1 million tonnes, while exports fall sharply from 2024/25 levels.
Growing biofuel use absorbs more US soybean oil, reducing export availability and increasing reliance on imports. That demand supports soybean oil prices and may also underpin soybean crushing demand.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.