
The EPA has proposed restructuring the Renewable Fuel Standard so that imported waste feedstocks would lose tax credits. Soybean oil futures surged to multi-year highs on the proposal as the market priced in stronger domestic demand.
Excluding imported feedstocks would shift biodiesel production toward domestic oilseed oils, lifting US soybean oil demand and prices. Imported feedstocks such as used cooking oil and palm-based inputs could lose market share.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.