
Palm oil prices reached $515 per tonne CIF Rotterdam in mid-June, the lowest of 2019 and down 21% year on year, after the EU moved to limit palm use in biofuels. Indonesia and Malaysia are forecast to raise output, and USDA expects palm imports into the EU to fall 2% in 2019/20.
Coconut oil has fallen 23% as Philippine buyers switch to cheaper palm oil.
EU biofuel restrictions reduce a major demand outlet for palm oil while rising output and record stocks add supply, keeping vegetable oil prices depressed. Cheaper palm oil also pressures substitute fats used in feed.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.