Industry figures at an Indonesian biofuel conference say biodiesel is unlikely to drive crude palm oil prices, as biodiesel exports to Europe have declined since 2014. Thailand's biodiesel output is falling as domestic inventories drop, and the EU's ban on palm-based biodiesel may reduce palm oil imports, though a full ban is viewed as unrealistic.
Weaker biodiesel export demand and a possible EU restriction on palm-based biodiesel would reduce demand for palm oil, a bearish factor for prices.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.