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USDA FAS forecasts Canada’s 2026/27 wheat crop at 36.1 million tonnes, down about 10% from the previous season’s record harvest but still the second-largest on record. Reduced harvested area, wet and cool conditions that delayed spring planting, and July heat contributed to the decline; Canadian wheat and wheat-product exports are forecast to fall 2.8%.
A smaller crop and lower export availability could tighten Canadian wheat supplies and reduce competition in international markets, lending support to wheat prices. The projected crop remains historically large, which may limit the impact.
millingmea.comEditor MillingNov 10, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
