
Canada's 2023/24 durum wheat crop is estimated at 4.2 million tonnes, 20% below last year, due to persistent heat and dryness on the Prairies, with some estimates as low as 3.7 million. US production is pegged at 1.56 million tonnes, and Italy faces quality problems after excessive rain.
Tight global durum supply and quality concerns increase reliance on high-quality imports, which has pushed Italian durum prices higher and supports wheat prices.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.