
US wheat futures rose after a private agency reported Russia's winter wheat condition rating at about 31%, the weakest for this time of year in roughly 23 years. Quality issues in Australia also supported prices, and a weaker US dollar was noted as a possible help to US exports.
Poor Russian crop conditions threaten supply from the world's largest wheat exporter, which tends to lift global wheat prices and feed-grade alternatives. Buyers should expect firmer wheat costs if dryness or cold damage persists.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.