
University of Minnesota economist Ed Usset says the wheat market is slowly turning bullish after nearly five years of bearish conditions. He cites a difficult EU crop, Russia returning to normal after two large crops, and smaller crops expected in Australia, China and India.
Lower production from major exporters such as the EU and Russia tightens export supplies and supports wheat prices, and may shift US acreage from soybeans to wheat.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.