Euro holds on to previous day’s gains ahead of U.S. inflation data

After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Apr 24, 2017France's Macron and Le Pen head for runoff in second round of presidential election+1.9%
• Mar 9, 2022Euro surges as oil prices ease and investors embrace risk+0.9%
• Mar 11, 2022Euro rises as Putin sees 'positive shifts' in talks+0.9%
• Jan 20, 2026EUR/USD rallies as escalating US-EU tensions crush the Dollar+2.5%
• Jan 19, 2026Trump's Europe tariff threat over Greenland revives talk of 'Sell America' trade | Reuters+2.5%

After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Apr 10, 2026Dollar set for weekly drop ahead of US-Iran peace talks-0.5%
• Jan 26, 2026Oil rises further as IEA predicts surplus in Q1 - The Nation Newspaper-0.8%
• Mar 9, 2022Euro surges as oil prices ease and investors embrace risk-0.3%
• Mar 11, 2022Euro rises as Putin sees 'positive shifts' in talks-0.6%
• Jan 20, 2026EUR/USD rallies as escalating US-EU tensions crush the Dollar-1.7%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• May 24, 2021Urea: US-Iran Sanctions - Trade flow disruption ahead?+4.4%
• Mar 16, 2022Oil dips on Russia-Ukraine talks, U.S. inventory data+15.6%
• Apr 10, 2026Dollar set for weekly drop ahead of US-Iran peace talks+0.8%
• Sep 3, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI erases all 2024 gains-7.9%
• Feb 26, 2019Despite progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China, oil futures gave up early gains+1.0%