The U.S. average retail diesel price fell 16.5 cents in the week to $6.127 per gallon, its largest weekly decline since the Iran war began. Brent and U.S. crude also fell after President Donald Trump said the war in Iran was effectively over, with the report citing prices of $90.55 and $84.94 per barrel, respectively.
Lower crude and diesel prices can reduce fuel and freight costs for feed production and delivery, easing cost pressure for buyers. Lower energy prices can also weaken support for biofuel economics and related feedstock demand.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.