
The article previews USDA’s November WASDE, reporting that corn production is tracking below the 16-billion-bushel October projection while soybean production may exceed 4.56 billion bushels. It also says China’s 2026 U.S. soybean purchases are about 25% behind the 25-million-ton annual target, while the author estimates ethanol grind could exceed USDA forecasts by roughly 140 million bushels.
Potentially lower corn production is supportive for corn, while larger soybean output and lagging Chinese purchases could weigh on soybeans. Stronger-than-expected ethanol grind would boost corn demand, but these are reported projections and estimates rather than confirmed WASDE outcomes.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.