
USDA's May 10, 2018 WASDE raised the 2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks estimate to 530 million bushels and projected 2018/19 at 415 million, well below the trade average of 533 million. Corn, soybean and wheat prices moved moderately higher after the release.
The smaller-than-expected U.S. soybean carryout signals tighter supplies for the coming marketing year, supporting soybean and soymeal prices. Lower U.S. export share estimates temper the upside.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.