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USDA's February WASDE showed U.S. wheat ending stocks at their largest since the 1980s at 1.139 billion bushels, with exports raised 50 million bushels to 1.025 billion. The report forecast a large soybean crop and lower grain sorghum output due to sugarcane aphids, and raised Mexico's corn production to a record.
Record-high wheat stocks cap rallies, but higher exports and the lower sorghum crop give some support. A large soybean crop is bearish for soy prices, and reduced sorghum supply can lift sorghum feed values.
texasfarmbureau.orgFeb 9, 2017After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
