
Corn, soybean, soybean meal and wheat futures rose early Tuesday as traders positioned ahead of USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports. Market expectations included higher soybean production and lower corn production; short-covering also contributed to the gains.
Oil prices fell amid increased hopes for a resolution to the Iran war, while the U.S. dollar edged higher.
A smaller corn crop estimate could support corn prices, while higher soybean production could pressure soybeans and related products. Short-covering may lift prices temporarily, but the reports’ results could prompt sharper moves.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.