Brazil central bank flags oil, El Niño, labor and FX shocks behind inflation rebound

After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.

• May 29, 2023Inflation Shows No Signs of Cooling. What Does That Mean For Commodity Prices? | FXEmpire-0.4%
• Jan 24, 2017Is it too late for a Colombian oil boom? | Global Risk Insights-0.3%
• Oct 17, 2022Canadian dollar gains as investors weigh high inflation expectations - The Globe and Mail-0.7%
• Feb 2, 2022Record euro zone inflation piles pressure on ECB | Reuters+1.3%
• Jul 30, 2020Analysis: First Chinese gas contracts linked to international LNG prices signal oil-gas decoupling continues | S&P Global+2.6%

After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Apr 24, 2017Rival storylines duel in the global oil market | The National-0.7%
• Mar 19, 2021WCU: Commodity markets consolidate with one eye on inflation | Saxo-1.8%
• Jun 8, 2022Q&A | Implications of the OPEC+ Announcement to Increase Oil Production - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP+0.3%
• Mar 15, 2022Hedge funds slash oil positions amid extreme volatility+9.5%
• Jul 27, 2025Oil Caught Between a $70 Summer and Growing Surplus Fears | Financial Post+1.9%

After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Feb 3, 2025Trump's tariffs raise fears Brazil's central bank is out of step on inflation-0.9%
• Jun 9, 2020Brazil central bank watching FX, commodities impact on inflation | 1330 & 101.5 WHBL+6.6%
• Mar 12, 2021FX Daily: Brazilian central bank’s line in the sand | ING THINK-0.3%
• Sep 26, 2022Brazil makes first FX intervention of the year - Central Banking+3.1%
• Sep 26, 2023Brazil inflation accelerates as cenbank reiterates rate cut pace+2.3%