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A Columbia CGEP Q&A explains that OPEC+ agreed on June 2 to add 648,000 b/d in July and August, and notes the group has struggled to meet prior quotas, with a reported shortfall of 2.7 million b/d in April. The physical supply impact is expected to be smaller than the headline increase.
Because actual output lags targets, the headline increase is unlikely to add much physical crude, leaving prices supported. Energy cost pressure persists for feed production and transport.
energypolicy.columbia.eduColumbia, CGEPJun 8, 2022After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
