
Hedge funds cut oil positions amid extreme volatility in March 2022. Soaring oil and raw material prices and higher freight charges have raised the probability of a recession within the next 12 months.
Fund liquidation adds to crude price swings, while rising freight and recession risk could weigh on demand for feed ingredients and energy.
After 102 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
After 54 past neutral macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.