US Dollar Index Price Forecast: The calm before the next bull move

After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Apr 10, 2026Dollar set for weekly drop ahead of US-Iran peace talks-0.5%
• Jan 20, 2026EUR/USD rallies as escalating US-EU tensions crush the Dollar-1.7%
• Jan 27, 2026Crude Prices Jump to a 3-Month High on Dollar Weakness and Iran Risks+0.3%
• Apr 8, 2026Dollar falls as US-Iran ceasefire sparks relief rally for risk assets | MarketScreener-1.6%
• Apr 8, 2026USD: Dollar Falls as US-Iran Ceasefire Reduces Demand for Haven Currencies - Bloomberg-1.6%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2026Crude Prices Fall More Than 2%+10.2%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil prices fall nearly 5%, below $62/bbl on US‑Iran de‑escalation - The Economic Times-1.6%
• Mar 9, 2020The oil price war is on; what that means for buyers of diesel - FreightWaves-23.0%
• Apr 10, 2026Dollar set for weekly drop ahead of US-Iran peace talks-3.2%
• Mar 16, 2020Chart of the Month | A Price War Erupts in the Oil Market-35.6%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2026Crude Prices Fall More Than 2%+15.0%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil prices fall nearly 5%, below $62/bbl on US‑Iran de‑escalation - The Economic Times-3.1%
• Mar 9, 2020The oil price war is on; what that means for buyers of diesel - FreightWaves-27.3%
• Apr 10, 2026Dollar set for weekly drop ahead of US-Iran peace talks+0.8%
• Mar 16, 2020Chart of the Month | A Price War Erupts in the Oil Market-20.5%