
U.S. regular gasoline averaged $4.31 per gallon in October, a record for the month and 41% above October 2025, while diesel averaged $6.25, also an October record. Diesel prices remained elevated amid attacks on Russian refineries, export curbs by Russia and China, and exceptionally low U.S. inventories during harvest and the start of heating season.
High diesel costs raise fuel and transport expenses for agricultural producers and grain handlers, adding upward pressure to feed and grain logistics costs. Tight fuel supplies and constrained exports could sustain that pressure.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.