Valero reported better-than-expected Q1 earnings of $905 million, citing strong gasoline and diesel demand and refinery closures that have cut supply. The company is replacing Russian fuel oil and VGO feedstocks, now banned from US imports since April 24, with barrels from the Middle East and South America.
The US ban on Russian feedstocks and refinery rationalization tighten product supply, supporting diesel and gasoline cracks. Refiners competing for replacement barrels could keep product prices firm.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.