Falling Oil Could Lift Brazil’s Real 2.7%

After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jun 29, 2020Brazilian Real Strengthens on EM Risk Appetite, Falling COVID-19 Cases-2.8%
• Jul 24, 2020EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real hits one-month high, stimulus hopes lift mood+0.8%
• Oct 8, 2018Brazil's real, stocks rally on Bolsonaro win-4.1%
• Nov 11, 2022Latam FX mixed; Brazil's real rebounds after bruising sell-off+0.9%
• Feb 3, 2025Brazil's real sets longest streak of gains in 20 years-0.9%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 23, 2020Latam FX weakens, Brazil's real comes off one-month high | Financial Post-1.7%
• Apr 27, 2020U.S. oil plunges 25%, Brent falls below $20 a barrel | Reuters+21.1%
• Jun 9, 2023Falling commodity prices stoke fear of global recession-0.9%
• Sep 21, 2020Oil Prices Fall Amid Broad Selloff | Rigzone-2.4%
• Aug 19, 2021Falling oil prices increase pressure on oilseed markets+4.7%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Apr 27, 2020U.S. oil plunges 25%, Brent falls below $20 a barrel | Reuters+19.9%
• Mar 19, 2021RM opens 120 bps lower amid falling oil prices, US yields spike-1.8%
• Sep 21, 2020Oil Prices Fall Amid Broad Selloff | Rigzone-2.9%
• Aug 19, 2021Falling oil prices increase pressure on oilseed markets+5.5%
• Dec 12, 2023Oil falls more than 3% on softening demand, oversupply concerns | Reuters+3.3%