
ADM reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.77, above the $1.60 consensus, while segment operating profit rose 64% to $1.38 billion and the company raised its full-year guidance. The article attributes stronger processing margins partly to US renewable-fuel rules and higher energy prices, while ADM’s CEO said crush margins may have peaked; the company also raised its expected 2026 benefit from the 45Z credit to about $350 million.
Renewable-fuel obligations and tax credits support demand for vegetable oils as biofuel feedstocks, which can underpin crush economics and soy oil demand. ADM’s view that margins may have peaked tempers the outlook for further processor-driven buying.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.